As the season of Hindu festivities unfolds in Indore, another crucial season is capturing the city's attention: the season of assembly elections. In the heart of this political spectacle, Indore Assembly 5 is witnessing fierce competition between candidates from rival parties, the INC and the BJP. This constituency holds a significant place as one of the nine Vidhan Sabha constituencies in the Indore district, falling under the Indore (Lok Sabha) constituency. Comprising a mix of urban and rural areas, it is here that Mahendra Hardia, the BJP candidate, has secured victory for four consecutive terms. While Satyanarayan Patel won only once in 1998 Indore-5 Constituency comes under the five urban constituencies of Indore, which comprise a total of 18 wards.

A Glimpse into the Past

The Indore 5 seat, established in 1977, has a rich electoral history. Prior to its formation, this seat was part of the Indore East and Indore Assembly constituencies. The INC's Suresh Seth was the inaugural winner in the 1977 assembly elections, and he continued his success with two more victories in 1980 and 1985. In 1990, Alok Shukla, also from the INC, clinched the seat. It wasn't until 1993 that the BJP gained its first foothold, with Bhanwar Singh Shekhawat as the candidate. Mahendra Hardia, the current BJP representative, claimed the seat in 2003, and his subsequent victories maintained the BJP's stronghold. This constituency boasts a diverse demographic, with a substantial Muslim and SC/ST voter base, alongside notable Brahmin and Jain communities.

Challenges for the BJP

The political landscape in Indore Assembly 5 is evolving, and the BJP faces challenges that may threaten its long-standing dominance. One significant factor is the shift in the BJP's ideological stance since coming into power at the national level in 2014. The party's emphasis on Hindu ideology has gained prominence, which, some argue, contradicts the pluralistic fabric of India that celebrates various religions and cultures. This shift has had a notable impact, particularly among the Muslim community, leading to a decline in support for the BJP. A recent survey and analysis by ETG Research, comparing the 2018 and 2023 elections, reveals that while Mahendra Hardia has been the MLA of Indore 5 assembly constituency for the past two decades, his winning margin has steadily decreased in the last two elections. In fact, in the 2018 elections, he secured victory by a mere margin of 0.46%. At 70 years of age, his influence within the BJP appears to be waning. Along with these factors, the ETG political analysis data states that voters are dissatisfied with the BJP's recently launched schemes such as the Ladli Behna Yojana, which appears to be a failing tactic as this scheme mostly targets the lower class and benefits them while the country's major taxpayers, the middle class, are barely able to access its benefits, and the declining employment rate, failure of competitive exam management, and opportunities to the youth, which INC, on the other hand, has addressed in their newly issued Manifesto, can work in INC's favor. ETG data also show that people in this constituency want a new face for the BJP, which the party declined by nominating Mahendra Hardia again.

Internal Challenges

Internal dynamics within the BJP compound the party's challenges. Several local leaders are demanding tickets for the upcoming assembly elections from the Indore assembly constituency. Some of these leaders are openly opposing Mahendra Hardia, citing him as the reason they were denied tickets in the local body elections. Which made it a substantial winning opportunity for INC.

In Conclusion

Indore Assembly 5's political landscape is experiencing transformation, driven by shifts in the BJP's ideology, a narrowing winning margin, and internal party dynamics. The upcoming assembly elections will test the BJP's ability to retain its long-standing position in this constituency. As the city prepares for both festive and electoral seasons, it remains to be seen whether the winds of change will sweep through Indore, reshaping its political future.