One of the most potentially exciting showdowns is expected in the 60 assembly constituencies of Tripura on 16th February 2023. And what has suddenly raised the stakes for this electoral competition is the formation of a new party headed by the titular king of the Tripuri Royal Family, the TIPRA Motha.

Pradyot Bikram Manikya DebBarma is not a new face in Tripuri politics. He was associated with the Indian National Congress in the past, like his parents, former MP Kirit Bikram Kishore Deb Barman and former MLA Bibhu Kumari Devi. His sister continues to be a prominent face of the Congress party. But after his fallout with the party, he took a hiatus and eventually formed the TIPRA, with the sole aim of giving a voice to the indigenous people of Tripura.

His aim with the formation of Greater Tipraland is to secure the rights of the people living in the Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council (TTAADC). The state of Tripura consists of 7,132.56 sq. km. of tribal land, and the aim of the TTAADC is to introduce internal autonomy and thereby protect the social, economic and cultural interests of the tribal population as a whole. The TIPRA and its then ally the Indigenous Nationalist Party of Twipra (which has since merged with the party) won a total of 18 out of the 28 elected council seats. The BJP was restricted to 9 seats and the CPI(M) was completely washed out, unable to win any seats, losing their supermajority of 25 seats in the 30-seat council and a decline from 49 per cent votes in the previous council election to 12 per cent.

But Pradyot Bikram feels the introduction of the TTAADC has not been enough to compensate for the lack of opportunities in the tribal dominated areas, and only statehood is the answer. So, for the upcoming elections, his party has absorbed the NPT, and approached the IPFT, which was allied to the winning BJP in the 2018 elections, as he believes all tribal parties have a common goal. He even approached the other parties and held a protest at Jantar Mantar in Delhi, but unless the promise of Tipraland was given in writing, no alliance would happen. And so far, it has not.

National parties and state parties alike are trying to woo the royal scion, but Bubagra is all set to contest the upcoming Tripura elections on his own if needed. Initially he was targeting about 30-35 seats which have tribal dominance, but now he has decided to contest 50-55 seats out of 60. What is likely to go in favour of the TIPRA Motha is the unequivocal support that they are getting from the tribals, who have in the past, been used as a mere vote bank and have yielded little to no benefit. The party has been making the BJP and IPFT bleed by attracting several of their MLAs and local leaders and inducing them into their party. There is no doubt that TIPRA Motha’s sudden introduction to the electoral contest in the state has given a jolt to the existing players.

What is likely to downplay the TIPRA’s chances is that on the face of it, it ignores the aspirations of the non-tribal population of the state. To accommodate all religions, Bubagra had recently expressed that he being a Hindu cannot have hatred towards Hindus who have suffered in Bangladesh and who came over to India. He also said that Muslims will always be supported and that the party will be staying strong with them as well. This way, he has tried to firefight the situation that he also needs the support of other communities as well to win the elections. However, the message has not reached the lowest strata, the voters, who are quite sceptical of voting for this new party.

Another threat might come from the BJP’s intense activity on ground. The BJP has the data, the workforce and the resources to deploy at the micro-level, and they are doing so. In comparison, the TIPRA’s ground work has been limited. They really need to ramp up their door-to-door campaigning and make people more aware of their demands.

No matter what the outcome is, the electoral competition promises to be thrilling, with BJP+ trying to retain their double-engine system, the Left + Congress trying to regain their foothold, the TIPRA Motha fighting for indigenous rights with all its might, and the TMC trying to place itself into the north eastern space for a while now. With so many national parties eyeing the prize, the TIPRA has a tough fight ahead, but is also the one to watch out for.